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August 11th, 2013 admin

Would the Allies have won world war 2 without the Americans?

A guy at works thinks we still could have won without the Americans because of the size of the Russian army , I think different.
What do you think?
I think we would not have stood any chance at all without the Americans help.

Without one of the 3 major powers of UK, US and USSR the allies do not win the war. (Counting the Commonwealth nations as part of the UK for simplicity, so no offense to the Canadians, Anzacs, Indians, etc... that fought in the war)

The mistake most people make when trying to analyze what did/didn't happen is people try to look at the European and Pacific theaters as completely separate areas with no effect on the other. Prior to September of 41, that is not a problem but after that time what happens in the Pacific had far-reaching effects on the European theater.

So before the what if let's review what actually happened prior to Dec. 1941

UK- Britain wins the 'Battle of Britain' . This suspends German plans for 'Operation Sealion' but does not "destroy" the Luftwaffe, only weakens it ability to project airpower outside of areas it doesn't control. British forces are defeated in Greece and then Crete and being pushed back in North Africa.
The Royal Navy was being stretched thin protecting convoy routes in the Atlantic,Mediterranean and Indian ocean. Heavy losses to the destroyer fleet (both sunk and needing heavy repairs) during the campaigns in Norway and Dunkirk evacuation but an even bigger strain on anti-sub warfare. This allowed the U-boats to have great success preying on Allied shipping.
July 41 the US begins aiding in convoy protection by taking part in protecting convoys in the Western part of the Atlantic as far as Iceland and relieving the British garrison in Iceland.

USSR- German forces are pushing hard and fast towards Moscow, surrounding and destroying entire Russian armies. Stalin receives word from his spy in the German embassy in Tokyo (Richard Sorge) that Japan will not invade Siberia unless Moscow falls, the Kwantung Army is 3 times the size of the Soviet Far East forces, a civil war started in Siberia. This intel is received in Sept of 41
This intel allowed Stalin to pull many of his armies out of the Far East to stem the tide of the German invasion. These were the forces that slowed the Germans in front of Moscow and eventually through them back during the winter. The Soviets are also busy removing their factories from Western Soviet Union to east of the Urals. This reduces their output of armaments until these factories get back into full production.

The Japanese are fighting in China. The Japanese Army and Imperial Navy continue their rivalry for dominance of Japanese military supremacy in their own government. The Army advocates a Northern strategy of attacking Siberia to gain the much needed resources. Probing attacks out of Manchuria were conducted in 1938-1939 to analyze the feasibility of this.
The Imperial Navy advocated a Southern Strategy of a defensive perimeter in the Pacific while attacking the Dutch East Indies and SouthEast Asia.
The Southern Strategy was chosen in August/Sept 1941 , which was what happened historically.

So why does the US not enter the war? If it is because the Japanese decide to go with the Northern strategy and attack Siberia then the USSR is forced to fight a 2 front war and might not have the ability to stop and push back the German forces while fighting the Japanese in the Far East. It's possible that German forces push far enough to force Stalin to sue for peace which leaves the UK to fight on alone.

If the Japanese chose to not attack Pearl Harbor but still go with a Southern Strategy then the UK is hard pressed to defend Australia and India from the Japanese without seriously weakening their defenses in the Mediterranean and England. This also prevents them from doing anything but standing on the defensive in Europe with Canadian troops being sent to the Pacific instead. The UK continues it's night bombing campaign but it's effects are limited. The Luftwaffe is able to apply more planes to the Eastern front and helps nullify the increased Soviet forces.

The Germans are being pushed back by superior Soviet numbers but the lack of Allied fronts in Italy and France allow them keep units at closer to full strength (as opposed to the 1/2 to 3/4 they often operated at on the Eastern Front). This slows and in some places possibly stops the Soviet advance with even more horrific casualty figures. This gives the Germans more time to invent and perfect new weapons systems which could possibly turn the tide.

If the US also withholds lend-lease aid from the Soviets then their advance slows down even more without all the trucks and railroad equipment sent over to assist with logistics.

@ joe- 3 yrs? either your math sucks or you can't tell WW1from WW2.

@ Lady Sovereign-Cullen- very nice answer

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